December 2001 Convergence

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December 2001 Convergence

Posted by I. Valdes on Sunday June 10, 2001 @ 11:53 AM
from the we'll-be-there dept.
Some of the subscribers to my newsletter are colleagues and associates in health care that I meet with socially but are only peripherally aware of the goings-on in open source software. Many of them have noted how GNU-Linux (usually referred to as just Linux) was supposed to take over the world one year ago and wonder: what happened, where is it? To which I reply: December 2001. Here's why. Digg this article

To the casual observer of the computing scene, not much has changed: Windows is still entrenched, MS Office is the de-facto standard and seems to have a continued raft of products such as Windows XP. The uproar in the media for Linux and the valuations of Linux software companies such as RedHat have both subsided. However, to conclude that nothing has changed would be a mistake.

The fundamentals of Linux are still there: it is still a compelling software platform both economically and technically particularly as an Internet server where it is a force to be reckoned with. What hasn't happened is a takeover of the desktop. There is a simple reason for this: it isn't ready.

I qualify this with: all of the distributions aren't ready for the average user. I've been using it on my desktop exclusively for over a year now and find it superior in many ways. My wife who is as non-technical as can be uses it also for school and documents using StarOffice 5.2. Then again, she has me to admin her machine. There are some end-user experience issues which keep Linux out of the reach of the masses: 1) Installation of video and sound as well as other installation difficulties remain an issue. 2) Anti-aliased fonts are not widely available through all the distributions. 3) A browser with the familiar Netscape name is not currently competitive. 4) Some application software is either a) not ready, b) not as good as applications such as MS-Office, or c) ready and superior to its Windows equilvalents (see my recent article on scanning) but requires more effort and knowledge on the part of the user to find and use.

Given the current rate of development and release of Linux and other open source applications, December 2001 appears to be the month that a usable convergence of many of the above open source technologies will occur. At that time Linux distributions are likely to have most of the necessary software required in a form that can compete in all areas. Interestingly enough, open source medical computing will also likely have its first viable offerings at the same time.

The most un-certain part of this analysis is a more competitive alternative to MS-Office than last years release of front-runner StarOffice release 5.2 which is growing stale. OpenOffice appears to be moving a long, and is quietly and un-officially predicting a 3rd quarter delivery of OpenOffice which will possibly occur simultaneously with Sun Microsystem's commercial version of OpenOffice, StarOffice 6.0. Delivery of a competitive version of OpenOffice and StarOffice 6.0 will be crucial to acceptance of Linux on the desktop.

I chat up Linux a lot publicly and privately as editor of Linux Medical News. What I haven't done is recommend Linux to the average user. All that is likely to change in December 2001.

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Novice needs guru. So What?
by JEDIDIAH on Thursday June 14, 2001 @ 07:14 PM

A novice end user needs to be bailed out by the local guru? What's the big deal here? I've been doing this for WinDOS users for 8 years. Win2k still hasn't gotten away from this problem. The system adminstration complexities of Linux and Windows actually overlap to a considerable degree. Also, "good enough" is never fully specified when it comes to web browsers, office suite software, or anything else that is compared to MSFoo. This is as true for competitors on Win32 as it is for ones under Linux. Until "good enough" is actually defined, such "complaints" are ultimately pointless. You describe a novice that has little stomach for OS complexities yet is supposed to eat them up when it comes to actual applications. For many users, most productivity applications far surpassed their actual needs a long time ago. "stale" simply isn't a real problem. Your article is too much rhetoric and too little substance.

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Re: Novice needs guru. So What?
by I. Valdes on Friday June 15, 2001 @ 11:12 AM

>>> Your article is too much rhetoric and too little substance. <<< Possibly, but for those outside of the open source mainstream, the biggest question for them is: 'When?' which I think the above answers. I could have put more speculative dates such as when things like ALSA are going to reach 1.0 and possibly be in kernel, but I'm lazy and didn't think it would add that much. Also, I've been privately told that I put in too much boilerplate at times so I'd like to put in less technical stuff from time to time. What do you think? -- IV

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Don't forget KDE factor :)
by Cole Thompson on Thursday June 14, 2001 @ 07:50 PM

Also lining up by the end of the year is KDE 2.2 desktop and KOffice. I've just been amazed at work (where developers are using KDE more and more) at how slick KDE is getting. Also, the little "cool" bits of functionality that KDE has to offer, like electronic post-it notes, executing commands like "du" on wherever you're browsing in Konqueror...it's just very well done.
Anyway, my point is that KDE and KOffice alone will guarantee Linux will win on the desktop :)

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Re: Don't forget KDE factor :)
by The rest of the Pond on Friday June 15, 2001 @ 04:02 AM

Yep, Unless omission of KDE was an oversight you need to paddle your gnuoe over to some other parts of the Linus Pond.

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Re: December 2001 Convergence
by James Crouchet on Friday June 22, 2001 @ 11:15 AM

I deal with enough "average users" to know that the big difference between them and most of us techies is that we get a kick out of change and they dread it. There are lots of exceptions and degrees but the single biggest complaint I hear about systems and software is that they have been changed. I suspect a lot of people would still happy using their character based WordStar in DOS if their computer had not been involuntarily upgraded 15 years ago. My point is this: what would most speed a transition to the Linux desktop for the average user would be for the look and control of it to work exactly like that to which he is accustomed. New features would be ok so long as they were off to the side where he did not have to notice them unless he got curious. All he realy wants is a stable (i.e. unchanging) environment in which to do his tasks. This type of thinking is anathema to those of us who develop software and systems and I believe that is what makes it so hard for many Linux advocates to grasp. Still, it is fundamental to understanding Joe Public. I think KDE has done a good job of creating an environment that is similar enough to Windoze to allow the slightly motivated user to make the transition while still introducing a lot of UNIX type functionality. But even so, movement to Linux will continue to be a slow bleed, not a revolutionary switch (at least until we hold about 30%-40% of the market). I think the things you mentioned will be a great help in making and keeping that bleed happen but I expect the transition to remain gradual for some time. BTW, let me add to your list. While I very much want to reformat the fat32 partition I keep on my dual boot system and be rid of Windows for good, here are the things I can't yet replace with an Linux equivalent: Quicken. I have GnuCash and I have tried to convert to it but my primary purpose for putting all that info into a computer is to allow me to predict my finances and for that I need support for budgeting, amortization and recurring payments. TurboTax. And Linux or not, I suspect tax software will never be viable as anything but a commercial product. GnuCash says otherwise but I'll believe that when I see it. Pegasus Mail. Ok, I actually have abandoned Pegasus and I do work my e-mail on Linux but not a day goes by that I don't wish for the ease of handling mail that was mine under Pegasus. I've tried lots of Linux e-mail programs and none I have found make dealing with my e-mail load as easy as Pegasus. Of course, I am a power user with e-mail lists to administer and hundreds of e-mails to process. Joe Public probably does not give a hoot about Pegasus and just wants his Outlook clone (hey, we could name it "Look Out!"). JC -- Inertia: The property which causes a brain at rest to remain at rest while a brain in motion tends to remain in motion.

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Re: December 2001 Convergence
by I. Valdes on Friday June 22, 2001 @ 05:15 PM

I whole heartedly agree with your statement that transition will be gradual for the reasons that you mention above: that many users like things where they were and that change is anethma to many. I also think that time is on Linux side in many respects and the chicken or the egg scenario will eventually reach critical mass. People do in fact change, but your absolutely right, it is likely to be gradual and possibly generational. -- IV

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